Key Takeaway:

Generative AI tools like ChatGPT are expected to improve internet searching for users by providing answers from the entire internet. However, concerns include opacity over information sources, potential for “hallucinated” answers, and copyright issues. The growing use of generative AI could potentially destroy the US$68 billion search engine optimization industry, which has helped drive traffic to websites and spawned an industry of consultants and marketers. As the quality of AI-generated answers improves, users may have less incentive to browse through search result listings, bypassing paid links and costly efforts by websites to improve their SEO scores. This could negatively impact the revenues of SEO consultants, search engine marketers, and the bottom line of search engines. The financial impact of generative AI is significant, with search engines potentially finding ways to offset losses by creating strategies to make money off AI answers.

Google, Microsoft and others boast that generative artificial intelligence tools like ChatGPT will make searching the internetbetter than ever for users. For example, rather than having to wade through a sea of URLs, users will be able to just get an answer combed from the entire internet. 

There are also some concerns with the rise of AI-fueled search engines, such as the opacity over where information comes from, the potential for “hallucinated” answers and copyright issues.

But one other consequence is that I believe it may destroy the US$68 billion search engine optimization industry that companies like Google helped create. 

For the past 25 years or so, websites, news outlets, blogs and many others with a URL that wanted to get attention have used search engine optimization, or SEO, to “convince” search engines to share their content as high as possible in the results they provide to readers. This has helped drive traffic to their sites and has also spawned an industry of consultants and marketers who advise on how best to do that.

As an associate professor of information and operations management, I study the economics of e-commerce. I believe the growing use of generative AI will likely make all of that obsolete. 

How online search works

Someone seeking information online opens her browser, goes to a search engine and types in the relevant keywords. The search engine displays the results, and the user browses through the links displayed in the result listings until she finds the relevant information. 

To attract the user’s attentions, online content providers use various search engine marketing strategies, such as search engine optimizationpaid placements and banner displays

For instance, a news website might hire a consultant to help it highlight key words in headlines and in metadata so that Google and Bing elevate its content when a user searches for the latest information on a flood or political crisis.

a closeup of a phone's screen shows a prompt about the ease of learning piano or guitar and a google bard's response.
Google Bard answers your question or prompt in a single reply, as opposed to the lists of links generated by regular search engines. Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto via Getty Images

How generative AI changes search process

But this all depends on search engines luring tens of millions of users to their websites. And so to earn users’ loyalty and web traffic, search engines must continuously work on their algorithms to improve the quality of their search results.

That’s why, even if it could hurt a part of their revenue stream, search engines have been quick to experiment with generative AIto improve search results. And this could fundamentally change the online search ecosystem.

All the biggest search engines have already adopted or are experimenting with this approach. Examples include Google’s BardMicrosoft’s Bing AIBaidu’s ERNIE and DuckDuckGo’s DuckAssist.

Rather than getting a list of links, both organic and paid, based on whatever keywords or questions a user types in, generative AI will instead simply give you a text result in the form of an answer. Say you’re planning a trip to Destin, Florida, and type the prompt “Create a three-day itinerary for a visitor” there. Instead of a bunch of links to Yelp and blog postings that require lots of clicking and reading, typing that into Bing AI will result in a detailed three-day itinerary. 

two screenshots side by side of Bing and Bing AI searches of the same prompt
Side-by-side comparison of search results in regular Bing and the AI version from the prompt: ‘Create a 3-day itinerary for a visitor to Destin Florida.’ Microsoft Bing

Over time, as the quality of AI-generated answers improve, users will have less incentive to browse through search result listings. They can save time and effort by reading the AI-generated response to their query. 

In other words, it would allow you to bypass all those paid links and costly efforts by websites to improve their SEO scores, rendering them useless.

When users start ignoring the sponsored and editorial result listings, this will have an adverse impact on the revenues of SEO consultants, search engine marketers consultants and, ultimately, the bottom line of search engines themselves. 

The financial impact

This financial impact cannot be ignored.

For example, the SEO industry generated $68.1 billion globally in 2022. It had been expected to reach $129.6 billion by 2030, but these projections were made before the emergence of generative AI put the industry at risk of obsolescence.

As for search engines, monetizing online search services is a major source of their revenue. They get a cut of the money that websites spend on improving their online visibility through paid placements, ads, affiliate marketing and the like, collectively known as search engine marketing. For example, approximately 58% of Google’s 2022 revenues – or almost $162.5 billion – came from Google Ads, which provides some of these services. 

Search engines run by massive companies with many revenue streams, like Google and Microsoft, will likely find ways to offset the losses by coming up with strategies to make money off generative AI answers. But the SEO marketers and consultants who depend on search engines – mostly small- and medium-sized companies – will no longer be needed as they are today, and so the industry is unlikely to survive much longer. 

A not-too-distant future

But don’t expect the SEO industry to fade away immediately. Generative AI search engines are still in their infancy and must address certain challenges before they’ll dominate search.

For one thing, most of these initiatives are still experimental and often available only to certain users. And for another, generative AI has been notorious for providing incorrectplagiarized or simply made-up answers

That means it’s unlikely at the moment to gain the trust or loyalty of many users.

Given these challenges, it is not surprising that generative AI has yet to transform online search. However, given the resources available to researchers working on generative AI models, it is safe to assume that eventually these models will become better at their task, leading to the death of the SEO industry.


Recently Published

Key Takeaway: Conspiracy theories are prevalent and can involve various factors. People believe false conspiracy theories for various reasons, such as the existence of real conspiracies. However, unfounded conspiracy theories often lack evidence and substitute elements that should be red flags for skeptics. To vet a claim, one should seek out evidence, test the allegation, […]
Key Takeaway: Recent research has focused on replicating the chemical reactions that constitute life as we know it in conditions plausible for early Earth around 4 billion years ago. However, the rise of experimental work has led to many contradictory theories. Some scientists believe that life emerged in deep-sea hydrothermal vents, where the conditions provided […]

Top Picks

Key Takeaway: NASA’s Curiosity and Perseverance rover missions are investigating the planet’s evidence for life, known as its “biosignatures,” in unprecedented detail. The rovers are acting as extraterrestrial detectives, hunting for clues that life may have existed eons ago, including evidence of long-gone liquid surface water, life-sustaining minerals, and organic molecules. The Mars of today […]
Key Takeaway: Jonathan Haidt’s book, The Anxious Generation, calls for action to limit teenagers’ smartphone access and address the mental health crisis caused by the widespread use of smartphones. Haidt cites the “great rewiring” period from 2010 to 2015 as a time when adolescents’ neural systems were primed for anxiety and depression by daily smartphone […]
Key Takeaway: Concerns about AI’s potential roguehood and potential harm to privacy and dignity are a significant concern. AI’s algorithms, programmed by humans, are also biased and discriminatory. However, a psychologist’s research suggests that AI is a threat to making people less disciplined and skilled in making thoughtful decisions. Making thoughtful decisions involves understanding the […]
Key Takeaway: A study published in the Journal of Personality suggests that long-term single people can be secure and thriving, possibly due to their attachment style. The research found that 78% of singles were insecure, with 22% being secure. Secure singles are comfortable with intimacy and closeness in relationships, while anxious singles worry about rejection […]


I highly recommend reading the McKinsey Global Institute’s new report, “Reskilling China: Transforming The World’s Largest Workforce Into Lifelong Learners”, which focuses on the country’s biggest employment challenge, re-training its workforce and the adoption of practices such as lifelong learning to address the growing digital transformation of its productive fabric. How to transform the country […]

Join our Newsletter

Get our monthly recap with the latest news, articles and resources.


Welcome to Empirics

We are glad you have decided to join our mission of gathering the collective knowledge of Asia!
Join Empirics